Münnich, D.Sc.: US engages Middle East in connection with Russia's threats against Ukraine

The United States is able to engage Middle Eastern countries in order to push Western Europe, including mainly Germany, to adopt more decisive policy towards Russia - emphasizes the expert on the Middle East, Prof. Maciej Münnich, D.Sc. of the Catholic University of Lublin. Possible gas supplies from Qatar, among others, may be crucial for European politics in the context of Russia's threats to invade Ukraine - adds the researcher.

In the analysis "The Middle East and the Ukrainian-Russian conflict", which is available on the website of the Catholic University of Lublin, Prof. Münnich recalls the meeting of US President Joe Biden with the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim, which took place at the White House at the end of January this year. One of the topics discussed by the two leaders was the increase of gas supplies to Europe - Qatar is alongside the U.S. and Australia the world's largest supplier of LNG (liquefied natural gas).

The KUL expert reminds that the increase of gas supply from Middle Eastern countries would strengthen Europe's resistance to Russian gas blackmail. In fact, Moscow has already announced that gas supplies to Europe will be halted in the event of tougher sanctions for a possible invasion of Ukraine. Hence, a substantial number of Western European countries, with Germany at the forefront, which depend on Russian gas imports, are reluctant to impose sanctions on Russia.

"Unfortunately, comments that 'European homes depend on Putin for heat' are by no means exaggerated. As much as 43.9 percent of the gas used in the European Union in 2020 came from Russia. According to data from the first half of 2021, this share has risen to 46.8 percent. And these numbers are still without Nord Stream 2. So about half of the gas we use in the EU comes from Russia" - Prof. Münnich reported.

"Russia's threat to turn off the gas tap if sanctions are imposed on it (such as cutting off SWIFT) is really dangerous," - he added.

The KUL expert also points out that cutting off supplies would hit hardest the countries which are intermediaries (mainly Germany) in selling Russian gas, because not only will they run out of blue fuel for themselves, but also the source of income, which is the re-export to other countries, will dry up.

"It should be noted that Germany is more dependent than the EU average on gas supplies from Russia (in 2020 it was 53 percent). The latest Eurostat data for the first half of 2021 specify only in general terms that supplies from Russia account for between 50 and 75 percent of gas imported by the neighbors across the Oder, as in the case of Poland. The difference lies, however, in the fact that Poland is completing the construction of Baltic Pipe, which this year will make us independent from Russian gas imports, while Germany is waiting for Nord Stream 2, which will deepen its gas alliance with Russia" wrote Prof. Münnich.

He added that in the current situation of crisis and threat to supplies "EU diplomats should urgently look for other possible sources of gas imports." "And if not EU ones, at least German ones. But instead we hear from the German government that the energy sphere should be exempted from possible sanctions.The problem is that sanctions on this sphere can be imposed by Russia, not by the European Union" wrote the expert, at the same time pointing out that in practice this means that if Europe wants to preserve gas supplies from Russia, it cannot impose any harsh sanctions on Russia.

In this context, according to the researcher, the U.S. president is keen to divert not only from America but also from the Middle East as much gas as possible to Europe, which will allow for a firmer policy towards Russia.

"There were probably discussions at the White House to rapidly increase the extraction based on the resources already in extraction. Paradoxically, it turns out that instead of Brussels or German officials, talks about gas supplies to Europe are conducted by the US president. Unfortunately, it shows the dependence of the EU foreign policy and the mercantilistically motivated submissiveness of the German policy towards Russia" the KUL expert assessed.

However, he added that in case of a chain of events: Russian invasion of Ukraine - sanctions by the West - suspension of gas supplies by Russia, even increased supplies from the U.S., Qatar and possibly Iran will not cover the entire demand of Europe and we will have to reckon with restrictions in gas supplies and a new increase in its prices. "Therefore, it is best to deter an opponent and not only react when he attacks" - Prof. Münnich concluded.

In his analysis, Prof. KUL also discussed other important topics of Biden's talks with Tamim, including U.S.-Iranian relations (Qatar is, after all, an intermediary between the two countries in the Middle East). This is especially important in the context of the ongoing talks in Vienna regarding a return to the JCPOA agreement, which allows for control of Iran's nuclear program and the possible removal of sanctions, including those on Iranian oil and gas exports. Iranian gas could be crucial in securing supplies to Europe. In addition, the leaders also discussed issues concerning Afghanistan, where, as Prof. Münnich reminds us, Qatar informally represents the U.S. and is the intermediary in talks with the Taliban.